Possible scenario
ISIS Resurgence Risk
15% Chance
ISIS attempts to exploit the final U.S. withdrawal by increasing attacks in rural Sunni areas and disputed territories. The most likely version is a localized security problem rather than a repeat of the 2014 territorial collapse.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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