Possible scenario
Iran-Linked Influence Rises
25% Chance
Iran-aligned factions inside Iraq gain symbolic and political leverage from the U.S. departure. The outcome is more likely to be a gradual shift in Baghdad’s coalition politics than an immediate regional crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.