Possible scenario
Protests Stay Peaceful
40% Chance
The most likely path is that demonstrations remain large but broadly peaceful, with governments treating them as a policing and civil-liberties issue rather than a market-moving geopolitical shock. Protest organizers, unions, student groups, and Palestinian solidarity networks continue mobilizing, but no major new policy rupture follows immediately.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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