Possible scenario
Policy Relief Arrives
20% Chance
Governments and major refiners respond to the IEA warning with targeted measures to improve diesel availability. The shortage does not disappear, but policy coordination and refinery run increases cap the upside in diesel margins.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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