Possible scenario
Managed Diesel Tightness
45% Chance
Diesel markets remain tight, but governments and refiners avoid a disorderly shortage. Russian export limits, refinery maintenance, and low inventories keep crack spreads elevated into mid-2027, while demand adjusts gradually.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.