Possible scenario
Diplomatic Clash Broadens
20% Chance
Sea deportations become entangled with Venezuela's earlier refusal to accept deportation flights and with Caribbean governments wary of U.S. maritime operations. The risk is not a full military crisis, but a short-term diplomatic standoff that modestly lifts geopolitical risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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