Possible scenario
Protests Escalate Nationally
20% Chance
Opposition mobilization intensifies after the Supreme Court filing, with marches in New Delhi, Patna, Kolkata, Chennai, and Bengaluru. The government and police maintain that public-order restrictions are necessary, raising near-term political-risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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