Possible scenario
Major Judicial Relief
28% Chance
The Supreme Court issues a forceful interim order after finding credible risk of large-scale wrongful deletions. The INDIA bloc, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, and other opposition parties frame the decision as a defense of electoral legitimacy, while the ECI faces a compressed compliance timetable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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