Possible scenario
Reelection With Ambiguity
45% Chance
Wes Moore wins a second term in heavily Democratic Maryland but continues to avoid a binding promise to serve all four years. This is the base case because the headline signals ambition management rather than an immediate break with state politics.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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