Possible scenario
Prolonged China Ban
25% Chance
Chinese customs authorities take a stricter line than in the 2023 beef case and require more extensive regional surveillance before reopening. Brazilian exporters redirect volume to the Middle East, Japan, South Africa, and domestic channels at lower margins.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.5%
Tickers
- JBS-3.9%
- TSN+1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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