Possible scenario
Rule Largely Finalized
42% Chance
The SEC finalizes a framework close to the proposal, allowing registered retail vehicles to access private equity, private credit, infrastructure, and real estate with performance fees capped near 20%. This is the most likely path because it aligns with the prior SEC staff guidance, mutual-fund access changes, the Trump 401(k) rule, and asset-manager commitments on daily pricing.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.5%
- Business Services +0.5%
Tickers
- APO+3.0%
- BX+2.8%
- ARES+2.5%
- KKR+2.2%
- +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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