Possible scenario
Partisan Litigation Expands
28% Chance
Republican officials and Trump-aligned lawyers use the Utah case to argue that mail-ballot handling remains vulnerable despite the Supreme Court blocking new requirements on September 15. Democrats and voting-rights groups counter that the indictment proves existing criminal safeguards work.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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