Possible scenario
Policy Backstop Stabilizes
35% Chance
Seoul policymakers respond to the scale of the KOSPI drawdown with market-stabilization language, accelerated pension buying, or renewed corporate buyback incentives. Because the selloff has already been large and partly mechanical after buyback support ended, even limited official reassurance could trigger a short-covering rebound.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Finance +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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