Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Omani and UN envoys press both sides to pause attacks on civilian aviation and revive truce terms. This outcome remains plausible because the Riyadh airport shutdown creates economic costs for Saudi Arabia and reputational risks for the Houthis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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