Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi air defenses keep subsequent Houthi launches from causing major damage, but Riyadh airport operations remain constrained while authorities inspect runways, terminals, and radar systems. This is the most likely path because both sides have incentives to signal resolve without immediately widening the conflict to oil infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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