Possible scenario
Refugee Policy Backlash
25% Chance
Opposition parties and some local officials use the case to demand stricter screening, faster deportations for criminal offenders, and limits on benefits. The government responds with visible security steps while trying not to undermine Poland’s strategic support for Ukraine.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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