Possible scenario
Diplomatic Damage Control
20% Chance
Ukraine moves quickly to distance itself from the suspect and reassure Polish authorities. Warsaw and Kyiv both have strong incentives to keep the case from damaging military, humanitarian, and labor-market cooperation.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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