Possible scenario
Proxy Network Escalates
18% Chance
Investigations or intelligence leaks connect the depot blasts to Iranian-linked weapons flows through Syria. Israel broadens strikes against logistics nodes tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or allied militias, raising the risk of spillover into Iraq, Lebanon, or the Red Sea.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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