Possible scenario
Limited Syrian Retaliation
25% Chance
Syrian forces or allied militias respond with limited fire toward Israeli-held areas or border positions. Israel answers with targeted strikes, but both sides avoid attacks on major cities or strategic infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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