Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Sabotage
32% Chance
Russia or Russia-linked actors carry out another low-attribution operation against Baltic infrastructure, staying below the threshold for a clear NATO military response. The most likely targets are subsea data cables, energy links or transport nodes where ambiguity is high.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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