Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
38% Chance
Russia continues probing with surveillance vessels, aircraft and information operations, but avoids physical disruption of NATO infrastructure. Germany, Finland, Estonia, Sweden and Poland increase patrols and intelligence-sharing without triggering a crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications +0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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