Possible scenario
Cyber And EW Campaign
18% Chance
Moscow intensifies non-kinetic pressure through cyberattacks, GPS jamming and electronic interference rather than visible physical sabotage. This keeps escalation controlled while still testing NATO resilience and public confidence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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