Possible scenario
Funding Gap Persists
17% Chance
Ukraine's financing needs may remain larger than the approved EU support schedule, especially if defense spending and energy repair costs rise through the winter. In this scenario, Kyiv presses the EU, G7 and IMF for supplemental cash while Brussels maintains a cautious disbursement pace.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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