Possible scenario
Asset Loan Advances
25% Chance
A more ambitious path is that the EU moves closer to using immobilized Russian assets, especially cash balances linked to Euroclear in Belgium, to support a large Ukraine loan. This would reduce Kyiv's medium-term funding gap but keep legal, sanctions and retaliation questions active.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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