Possible scenario
Western Support Deepens
20% Chance
Russia's retaliation strengthens the case in Washington and European capitals for more air defenses, interceptors, and long-range strike support. The market response depends on whether the aid is framed as defensive stabilization or as permission for deeper strikes inside Russia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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