Possible scenario
Escalation Cycle Widens
25% Chance
The exchange of strikes broadens beyond Kyiv and Moscow, with Ukraine intensifying attacks on Russian energy and military infrastructure. Russia responds with wider attacks on Ukrainian logistics, ports, and power assets, lifting geopolitical risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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