Possible scenario
Contained Retaliatory Strikes
45% Chance
Russia follows through with intensified missile and drone attacks on Kyiv, but the retaliation remains within the established pattern of the war. Ukraine continues drone operations against Moscow and military targets, while both sides avoid steps that directly implicate NATO.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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