Possible scenario
Treasury Forces Escalation
30% Chance
Treasury, intelligence officials, or congressional Republicans produce more evidence tying Chinese and Russian networks to Iranian oil payments, drone components, or tanker logistics. Trump’s denial then becomes harder to sustain, forcing broader sanctions despite diplomatic costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.