Possible scenario
Evasion Networks Persist
20% Chance
China and Russia continue to use intermediaries, non-dollar settlement, dark-fleet shipping, and deniable procurement channels while formally rejecting U.S. claims. Trump’s public denial reduces the credibility of a full secondary-sanctions campaign, allowing Iran’s networks to adapt.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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