Possible scenario
Denial Contains Escalation
40% Chance
The White House continues to publicly separate Russia and China from Iran sanctions enforcement, even as Treasury keeps naming specific tanker, broker, and payment entities. This is the most likely path because it preserves Trump’s maximum-pressure posture while avoiding an immediate confrontation with Beijing or Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
Tickers
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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