Possible scenario
Enforcement Revived
20% Chance
A less likely but material path is that another enforcement body treats the retraction as insufficient and reopens the underlying trading questions. The Justice Department, SEC, or CFTC inspector general could examine whether the adviser reversed course under pressure or whether the original evidence was flawed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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