Possible scenario
UN Process Advances
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a formal but slow-moving UN process that converts CEO warnings into consultations, working papers, and voluntary coordination. China, the U.S., EU members, and major AI labs are unlikely to agree quickly on binding rules, but they can support a multilateral forum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.6%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.