Possible scenario
Personnel Damage Control
18% Chance
The Trump team tries to close the matter through personnel or recusal steps rather than a broader policy shift. This is a plausible middle path because it protects Susie Wiles while limiting further headlines about family access and foreign lobbying.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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