Possible scenario
ULA Stabilizes Competition
25% Chance
NROL-97 still strengthens SpaceX's record, but the Pentagon preserves a dual-provider launch base. Vulcan's certification and operational ramp give ULA enough credibility to prevent a wholesale shift of heavy national-security launches to SpaceX.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- SPCX+2.0%
- BA+0.3%
- LMT+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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