Possible scenario
SpaceX Gains NRO Cadence
45% Chance
The NROL-97 flight performs nominally and becomes a proof point for using Falcon Heavy on the NRO's heaviest and most sensitive missions. The likely result is a higher cadence of classified SpaceX launches under National Security Space Launch contracts, with ULA retaining some missions but losing incremental share.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- SPCX+4.7%
- BA-0.3%
- LMT-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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