Possible scenario
Hezbollah Retaliates Locally
20% Chance
Israeli retaliation triggers a sharper but still geographically contained exchange with Hezbollah. The fighting revives the March-April escalation pattern, threatens northern Israeli communities again and creates a material but not crisis-level market risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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