Possible scenario
Contained Israeli Response
45% Chance
Israel conducts a calibrated military response against Hezbollah launch and storage sites while avoiding a broader Lebanon campaign. The April cease-fire is damaged but not abandoned because Washington, Paris, UNIFIL and the Lebanese government press both sides to limit the exchange.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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