Possible scenario
Stop-Start Operations
25% Chance
The pipeline is not fully shut, but Saudi operators impose rolling inspections, slower pumping, or temporary safety pauses after the recent Houthi strike. This would keep exports moving while sustaining a modest geopolitical premium in crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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