Possible scenario
Renewed Houthi Escalation
18% Chance
The Houthis attempt another strike on Yanbu or a related East-West Pipeline node, challenging Riyadh's claim of operational resilience. Even limited damage would quickly reprice oil because the route is central to Saudi efforts to bypass Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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