Possible scenario
Operational Continuity Holds
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia and Saudi Aramco keep the East-West Pipeline moving roughly 5.8M-6.2M barrels per day, making the shutdown reports look overstated. This is the most likely path because the latest headline reinforces official claims that flow has continued despite Houthi pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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