Possible scenario
Post-Election Strike Debate
20% Chance
Netanyahu's rejection applies mainly to the pre-election window, not the broader strategic debate over Iran's nuclear program. After Oct. 27, the result of the Israeli election determines whether Israel reopens overt strike planning or remains politically constrained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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