Possible scenario
Election-First Restraint
45% Chance
Netanyahu maintains the public rejection of a preemptive Iran strike until the Oct. 27 election, prioritizing political survival and avoiding the military chief's warned election-delay risk. Washington supports deterrence and readiness but does not press for immediate action before voting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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