Possible scenario
Covert Pressure Campaign
25% Chance
Israel rejects a visible preemptive strike but continues pressure on Iran through intelligence, cyber, sabotage, and regional interdiction. This preserves deterrence while reducing the immediate risk of an election-disrupting war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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