Possible scenario
Rhetoric, Policy Continuity
30% Chance
Voters express broad fatigue with overseas wars, but elected officials distinguish between ending wars and maintaining deterrence. Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and Red Sea security funding largely continue, with more restrictive messaging rather than major policy change.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- LMT+0.7%
- +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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