Possible scenario
Midterm Antiwar Pivot
40% Chance
The poll becomes part of the closing argument in 2026 swing-state races, especially in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. Candidates in both parties adopt language about ending open-ended missions while avoiding full isolationism.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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