Possible scenario
Legislative Retrenchment Push
18% Chance
The poll strengthens a left-right coalition seeking to limit presidential latitude after the Senate rejected war-powers constraints in April 2026. Concrete bills gain traction in the House, though passage through the Senate remains uncertain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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