Possible scenario
Protests Broaden Nationwide
30% Chance
Cost-of-living anger and opposition to the €43 billion budget-cut plan turn the riots into a broader protest movement. Trade unions, student groups, and left-wing parties coordinate marches, raising the risk of transport disruption and further pressure on consumer-facing businesses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.2%
- Consumer Services -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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