Possible scenario
Macron Offers Concessions
15% Chance
The government tries to defuse the crisis by modifying the budget-cut package and opening talks with opposition parties, unions, and mayors. This reduces the risk of prolonged disorder but raises questions about fiscal consolidation and parliamentary arithmetic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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