Possible scenario
Curfews Restore Order
45% Chance
The most likely path is that curfews, riot police deployments, and rapid arrests reduce street violence within several days. Macron's government keeps restrictions temporary while mayors in Paris, Lyon, Marseille, and Lille focus on reopening transport corridors and commercial districts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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