Possible scenario
AI Momentum Persists
40% Chance
China's industrial profit growth remains resilient as AI-related equipment, servers, electronics and automation demand offset weakness in older heavy industries. The continuation of the August trend is the base case because Beijing has already pledged expanded AI investment and recent profit data show clear momentum.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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